Retail’s Ruinous Run

Retail real estate’s troubles in recent years have been well-documented. Online sales continue to eat away at brick-and-mortar activity. Many chains are struggling, forced to scale back on stores or go out of business entirely.

The results from NREI’s fourth retail real estate survey reveal that the outlook from retail operators, investors and developers continues to be bleak. Sentiments on cap rates, occupancies and retail rents all declined from past years. And respondents see retail as having the dimmest outlook of any of the major property sectors.

On a scale of one to 10, with 10 being the most attractive, retail scored 5.5 in this year’s survey. The number has dropped for three consecutive years and leaves retail at the bottom of the list compared to office, industrial, multifamily and hotels. And whereas in past years the spread between the top and bottom property types was not that great, retail’s score in this year’s survey is well below the highest-scoring sector (industrial), which rose to 7.6.

In fact, the scores for those sectors are two sides of the same coin, with industrial’s prospects rising directly in concert with retail’s struggles as the ever-growing volume of online sales fuels the lackluster results at many brick-and-mortar outlets.

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