Yardi Matrix Outlook: Rents Rise 3% by Midyear 2019

Despite strong fundamentals, Yardi notes a rise in trade tensions and slowing economic growth.

Rent growth has stabilized at 2.6% in the first half of 2019 and 3.3% year-over-year, with 2.6% rent growth expected over the full year, according to the Yardi Matrix Multifamily Outlook for summer 2019.

Based on this prediction, 2019 would mark the seventh year in a row that rents have risen above the 2.5% long-term average.

South and Southwest metros are leading the nation in rent growth, due to their fast-growing economies and existing affordable housing, but most metros are seeing strong gains. Rent growth is strong across most markets as of midyear; only a handful saw rent growth of 2.5% or less. Apartments aimed at the middle and lower end continue to lead in rent growth, as new supply is still concentrated in the luxury sector.

However, with the national average rent rising to $1,465 as of June 2019, cost burdens have led to accelerated migrations from high-cost metros in the Northeast and Midwest out to the Southeast and Southwest. According to U.S. Census data, the populations of Austin, Texas; Dallas; California’s Inland Empire; Las Vegas; Orlando, Fla.; and Phoenix have risen at least 300% since 1970. Rents in many of these markets are among the fastest growing in recent years; Las Vegas tops the nation in rent growth at 8.4% YOY, followed by Phoenix at 8.1%.

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