States Hardest Hit by Closures Could See Property Valuations Fall by Low Double Digits

A new report from Reonomy looks at where property valuations might dip the most.

It’s been made clear by now that the retail, restaurant, travel and energy sectors have been hit the hardest by the impact from the COVID-19 crisis. But a recent report from Reonomy, a data platform for the commercial real estate industry, also highlights that administrative work, arts, entertainment and recreation industries have seen outsized fallout. Across the U.S., all these industries account for approximately 14 percent of GDP, Reonomy researchers point out.

In addition, many of these industries are concentrated in specific states, leading Reonomy to conclude that Alaska, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Wyoming will be among those that will suffer more from the pandemic. Firm closures in the impacted sectors can lead to higher unemployment rates and longer-lasting periods of unemployment for workers, and to decreased tax revenues for the states. And decreased economic activity will also weaken property valuations.

In addition to the above-mentioned states, states with high concentrations of at-risk jobs include those that rely heavily on tourism (Mississippi, Louisiana, South Carolina and Hawaii), states with high levels of energy production (Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota and Louisiana) and states with large manufacturing sectors (Indiana, South Carolina, Alabama and Kentucky).

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