U.S. Commercial-Property Prices Fall with Worst Yet to Come

Year-to-date through July, hotel prices fell 4.4 percent, retail prices 2.8 percent office prices 0.9 percent, according to Real Capital Analytics.

(Bloomberg)—U.S. commercial real estate prices are falling as the economic toll of the Covid-19 pandemic worsens — and the decline is just getting started.

Indexes for office, retail and lodging properties all slipped year-over-year in July, data from industry tracker Real Capital Analytics Inc. show. Transaction volume plummeted to $14 billion across all sectors, down 69% from July 2019.

“The worst is yet to come,” Real Capital Senior Vice President Jim Costello said in a telephone interview. “We’re not seeing the fallout yet of owners selling properties and taking a loss.”

Commercial real estate deals have been in a deep freeze as lenders give borrowers slack to defer payments and landlords are reluctant to drop asking prices. That may change in the next few months as debts mount and the outlook dims for retail, hotel, office and even apartment properties that already suffered from oversupply before the pandemic hammered the U.S. economy.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if we start to see some of it start to break in September or October,” Costello said.

Hotel prices dropped 4.4% in the year through July, while retail declined 2.8% and offices fell 0.9%, according to Real Capital. Apartment building prices climbed 6.9%, and industrial values rose 8.3%, leading to a 1.5% gain for all property types in the period.

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