Category: Residential

Top 10 U.S. Metros Where Spring and Summer Home Sellers See Higher Premiums

ATTOM’s newly released Best Days to Sell A Home Analysis reveals that the months of May, June and July offer seller premiums of 10 percent or more above market value, based on home sales over the past 11 years – with the top 15 best days to sell in the month of May alone.

According to ATTOM’s latest analysis of more than 46 million single family home and condo sales between 2011 and 2021, the Spring and Summer months continue to prove more profitable for home sellers. The report suggests that if you’re thinking about selling your home and motivated by a higher home seller premium, now may the time to sell.

The new analysis found that the Top Five Days with the highest home seller premiums included: May 23 (18.3 percent); May 27 (17.0 percent); May 16 (16.8 percent); May 20 (15.4 percent); and May 19 (14.9 percent).

The analysis also showed how seller premiums faired throughout the year broken out by month: May (12.6 percent); June (10.7 percent); July (10 percent); April (9.2 percent); March (8.9 percent); September (7.9 percent); February (7.9 percent); August (7.9 percent); December (6.3 percent); January (6.2 percent); November (6.1 percent); and October (5.2 percent).

In this post, we dive even deeper into the data behind the latest ATTOM analysis to uncover those top 10 U.S. metro areas that are seeing the greatest home seller premiums during those Spring and Summer months, based on the data over the past 11 years.

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Housing Market Update: Typical Buyer’s Monthly Payment Up 39%—The Biggest Annual Gain on Record

Home sellers and buyers are retreating at similar rates, resulting in a housing market that remains very competitive even as it slows.

The typical homebuyer’s monthly mortgage payment shot up 39%, the largest year-over-year gain on record as the average 30-year-fixed rate hovered at a 12-year high of 5.1%. Redfin’s data on homebuyer mortgage payments is based on asking-price data going back to 2015.

“Rising mortgage rates are taking a bite out of pending sales as both buyers and sellers take a step back from the turbulent market,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “It seems as though the ratio of buyers to sellers remains mostly the same, which is why we have yet to see a substantial drop in bidding wars or the share of homes selling quickly. It’s still early days though when it comes to 5% mortgage rates. The number of buyers willing to pay such high mortgage payments could evaporate by late summer.”

Pending home sales posted their largest year-over-year decrease since mid-February and mortgage purchase applications fell 17%. On the supply side, new listings fell 4% and the share of listings with price drops rose to its highest level since November.

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Home Sales, Seller Profits Dip Across U.S. in First Quarter of 2022 As Price Increases Slow

IRVINE, Calif. – Apr. 28, 2022 — ATTOM, a leading curator of real estate data nationwide for land and property data, today released its first-quarter 2022 U.S. Home Sales Report, which shows that profit margins on median-priced single-family home sales across the United States dipped to 47.2 percent – the first quarterly decline since late 2019 and the largest in a decade.

In a sign that the nationwide housing-market boom may be slowing, the latest profit margin was down from 51.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021. While profit margins often decrease during the relatively slow Winter home-buying season, the latest dip of more than four percentage points marked the first quarterly decline since the fourth quarter of 2019 and the largest since the first quarter of 2011.

The report reveals that the typical return on investment remained historically high, easily topping the 37.5 percent level recorded in the first quarter of 2021 and almost 20 points above the 29.4 percent figure from the first quarter of 2019.

Gross profits, while also near record highs, followed a similar pattern in the first quarter of 2022. The typical single-family home sale across the country generated a gross first-quarter profit of $103,000, down from $107,187 in the fourth quarter of last year, although still well above $75,001 a year earlier.

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Apartment List’s 2022 Millennial Homeownership Report

  • According to the most recent Census data, the Millennial homeownership rate stands at 48.6 percent, more than 20 percentage points lower than the rate for Gen X and almost 30 percentage points lower than Baby Boomers.
  • Millennial homeownership lags even after adjusting for age. Among older Millennials who have hit age 40, 60 percent own homes. At that same point in life, 64 percent of Gen Xers, 68 percent of
  • Baby Boomers and 73 percent of Silents owned homes.
    With each passing year – and accelerated by the pandemic – an increasing share of Millennial renters say they will never own a home. 22 percent of Millennial renters view themselves as “always renters” in 2021, and preliminary data from 2022 shows that share increasing.
  • As Millennials age, affordability becomes increasingly important to their housing choices. Other factors in the “rent or buy” decision (e.g., lifestyle flexibility) have become less important to Millennials as they age.
  • Down payment savings rates remain shockingly low for Millennials who want to buy homes. In 2021, nearly two-thirds say they have no savings whatsoever, and only 16 percent have saved more than $10,000. The average savings of just over $12,000 represents just a 4 percent down payment on a median-priced condo today.

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Housing Inventory Has Bottomed

Tracking existing home inventory is very important in 2022.

Inventory usually declines in the winter, and then increases in the spring. Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 5.1% since then.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of March 25th, inventory was at 253 thousand (7-day average), compared to 248 thousand the prior week. Inventory was UP 2.4% from the previous week.

Last year inventory bottomed seasonally in April 2021 – very late in the year. This year, by this measure, inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March.

Inventory is still very low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is down 19.0%, and compared to the same week in 2020, and inventory is down 66.1% from 747 thousand.

One of the keys will be to watch the year-over-year change each week to see if the declines are decreasing. Here is a table of the year-over-year change by week since the beginning of the year.

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Real Estate Investors Are Buying a Record Share of U.S. Homes

Investors bought 18.4% of the U.S. homes that were purchased in the fourth quarter, a record high.

Real estate investors bought a record 18.4% of the homes that were sold in the U.S. during the fourth quarter of 2021, up from 12.6% a year earlier and a revised rate of 17.4% in the third quarter.

We define an investor as any institution or business that purchases residential real estate. When we refer to a “record” in this report, the record dates back to the first quarter of 2000. This data is subject to revision. Scroll to the bottom of this report to read the full methodology.

Although investor market share hit a record in the fourth quarter, the number of homes bought by investors declined 9.1% from the third-quarter peak–but it’s up significantly from pre-pandemic levels. Investors bought 80,293 homes in the fourth quarter, up 43.9% from a year earlier. The housing-supply crunch constrained home sales for all homebuyers, including investors. The drop from the third quarter is also due partly to seasonality, as real estate activity tends to slow at the end of the year. In 2019, for example, the number of homes investors purchased dropped 4% from the third to fourth quarters.

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Housing Market Update: Homebuyers’ Monthly Payments Up 25% to Record High

People who need to move now are pinched by rising mortgage rates, sky-high home prices and rising rents.

The estimated monthly mortgage payment for a typical home for sale rose 25% year over year—or $388—to a record $1,931. That’s based on the all-time high median asking price of $376,000 recorded during the four weeks ending February 6, and an average 30-year mortgage rate of 3.69%.

Pending sales were down slightly from the same period in 2021, but 34% higher than they were two years earlier, weeks before the pandemic began. Meanwhile, the number of homes for sale was down 29% from a year earlier and down 50% from 2020. This constricted supply is depressing home sales, as mortgage purchase applications fell 10% during the week ending February 4.

As a result, the market’s pace is accelerating. Over half (55%) of homes that found a buyer spent two weeks or less on the market—the highest rate on record for this time of year.

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Housing Market Update: Homebuyers Face Record Supply Shortage Heading into 2022

Home prices were up 14% and pending sales rose 4% from a year earlier despite a record low number of homes for sale.

The housing market started off the new year with fewer homes for sale than ever before, as active listings fell 27% from a year earlier. The number of newly-listed homes for sale fell 10%, but anecdotes from Redfin agents suggest that listings may soon begin to pick up.

“We’re kicking off yet another year with a whole lot of buyers whose home search has been ongoing for months, and they are as eager as ever,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “This month, the stage will be set for the 2022 housing market, and we’ll be closely watching whether prices climb like they usually do in January or whether they start off high and stagnate due to rising mortgage rates. We’re also keeping a close eye on new listings. I’ve already been hearing from Redfin agents in extremely supply-constrained markets like Austin that they are getting more interest than usual from homeowners about selling early this year. A lot of these people spent the last couple months getting their homes spruced up and ready to list. This gives me hope that more sellers will be motivated to take action now that the new year has arrived.”

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What will the 2022 housing market look like? It could ‘come back down to sanity’

The Covid-19 pandemic upended the home-buying process. Historically-low mortgage rates coupled with an inventory shortage created a red hot market, with houses selling within hours of being listed, often for well over asking price.

No one knows exactly what the future has in store. But housing experts tell CNBC Make It that in 2022, buyers can expect similar trends to the past two years: elevated prices, low inventory and fast turnaround.

That said, although it will continue to be a sellers market — home values are expected to increase by double-digital percentage points, Zillow predicts — it won’t be quite as wild as it was this year, says Skylar Olsen, principal economist at Tomo, a home-buying app.

“None of us can promise that [finding] housing will be easy,” says Olsen. “But it feels reasonable to promise that it will be easier than this past year.”

With that in mind, here’s what you need to know if you plan to buy a house in 2022.

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Will the housing market continue its hot streak in 2022?

Three predictions on the strength of the 2022 housing market

As we approach the end of another hot year for the market, homebuyers and sellers are eagerly looking ahead to the 2022 housing market. Will the market continue its streak of strong growth, or are we finally about to see a slow down?
Here’s a high-level forecast for what to expect next year, based on the supply and demand signals we can already see in today’s data. I’ll also highlight which variables we should be watching for unexpected market shifts.

1. Demand will continue to be strong into 2022.

The first signal we look at to forecast the strength of the housing market is days on market – how fast are homes moving? Right now, we’re seeing a median of 49 days on market and climbing, as it normally does this time of year. A typical December would see market time at 85-100 days, so you can see from the chart that demand is staying elevated later in the year, which is a bullish sign for next year.

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