This coming year, most real estate investors will want to stay away from the cities with soaring prices, where they’re more likely to end up holding the bag than to strike it rich.
You can never know when a real estate bubble will burst – I happen to think it won’t happen in 2019 – but in places like San Francisco, Seattle, Miami and Denver, caution is now the order of the day. If you own property in these spots and plan to sell, don’t wait until the market has peaked. And if you’re looking for a good place to put your money, you should consider instead the 20 markets I’m listing here.
There were a total of 66,401 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings in October 2018, up 21 percent from an all-time low in the previous month, but still down 4 percent from a year ago, according to ATTOM Data Solutions.
Counter to the national trend, October 2018 foreclosure activity increased from a year ago in 15 states, including Florida (up 55 percent); Texas (up 28 percent); Georgia (up 50 percent); Michigan (up 24 percent); and Arizona (up 1 percent).
Also counter to the national trend, 84 of 219 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed in the report (38 percent) posted a year-over-year increase in foreclosure activity, including Miami, Florida (up 55 percent); Houston, Texas (up 198 percent); Tampa-St. Petersburg, Florida (up 67 percent); Atlanta, Georgia (up 36 percent); and Phoenix, Arizona (up 3 percent).
That means his strategy in preparing for the next recession — which he believes is coming in late 2019 or early 2020 — looks much different than his strategy leading up to the last recession.
Norris, who predicted the coming California housing crash in 2006 and largely liquidated his inventory at the time, provided three key data-driven indicators that lead him to believe the coming recession won’t trigger a sharp drop in home prices like the Great Recession.
First, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy in recent years has set the stage for an extremely favorable mortgage rate environment in response to a recession.
“During a recession, interest rates are lowered,” said Norris, CEO of The Norris Group. “The fed fund rate, in past recessions, has been lowered by 4 to 5 percent. What makes this impending recession most interesting is the fed fund rate will stand at 3 percent or less when the easing begins. If the Fed lowers rates as aggressively as they normally do, we could end up in negative interest rate territory and have a 30-year loan that starts with 2 percent!”
IRVINE, Calif. – August 2, 2018 — ATTOM Data Solutions, curator of the nation’s premier property database, today released its 2018 Neighborhood Housing Index, which uses new neighborhood boundary data to rank more than 10,000 neighborhood housing markets nationwide based on six factors impacting the hyperlocal housing market: affordability, home price appreciation, school scores, crime rates, unemployment rates and property taxes (see more in the methodology enclosed below).
The top five U.S. neighborhood housing markets based on the index were the Pine Ridge neighborhood in the Naples, Florida, metro ($632,871 median price); Westlake neighborhood in the Mobile, Alabama, metro ($196,179); Union neighborhood in the San Jose, California, metro ($795,000); Westmoreland neighborhood in the Charlotte, North Carolina metro ($326,000); and Hunters Hill neighborhood in the Denver, Colorado, metro ($271,000)
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