GI206: Investing in the Outpost Economy with Ryan Swehla

GI206: Investing in the Outpost Economy with Ryan Swehla

Ryan Swehla has over 15 years of experience in commercial real estate and capital markets. Prior to co-founding his current firm in 2009, Ryan worked for two capital management firms over a 4-year period.

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Announcer:
Welcome to the Global Investor Podcast, a show that focuses on helping foreign investors enter the lucrative US real estate market. Host Charles Carillo combines decades of real estate investing experience with a professional background in international banking to interview experts in all areas of US real estate investing. Now, here’s your host, Charles Carillo.

Charles:
Do you have money sitting in the stock market? And you’re worried about it or worse. You have money sitting at the bank, not keeping up with inflation. My name is Charles Carillo, founder and managing partner of Harborside Partners. And since 2006, I’ve been investing my money and my family’s money into income producing properties. These are real assets, real properties with real addresses that produce real cash flow. At Harborside Partners, we provide passive investors who love real estate with a turnkey investing solution. If you want to put your money to work in real estate, but can’t find deals, don’t have the time to get funding in. The last thing that productive people want to do is manage real estate. We find the deals. We fund the deals and we manage the tenants, the termites and the properties. Partner with us at investwithharborside.com. That’s investwithharborside.com. Go to investwithharborside.com. If you love real estate, you like the idea of passive income and believe that income producing properties will appreciate over time. Go to investwithharborside.com. That’s investwithharborside.com.

Charles:
Welcome to another episode of the Global Investors Podcast; I’m your host Charles Carillo. Today we have Ryan Swehla. He has over 15 years of experience in commercial real estate and capital markets. Prior to co-founding his current firm in 2009, Ryan worked for two capital management firms over a 4-year period. So thank you so much for coming on today, Ryan.

Ryan:
Thank you. Glad to be here.

Charles:
So give us a little background to our listeners about yourself, both personally and professionally prior to getting involved with your current business and real estate and just investing in general.

Ryan:
So we I guess just to kind of back background a little bit my business partner and I met in third grade. So we’ve been friends for a long time and we were friends much longer than we’ve been business partners, but we’ve been working together now close to 20 years together and 15 years with our own company. So I’d say that’s probably a a and we’re, we are both actually born and raised in Modesto, California, which is where our firm is headquartered. We both went away for, you know, college and other education and then ultimately came back here and I had worked at a hedge fund prior to moving back to Modesto. And so the natural parlay from that is the into real estate investing. So we, we started our firm great timing, December of 2008, so right as the wheels were coming off of the bus. So it was actually an incredibly formative time. We joked that, you know, the first five years we never saw an up year. So definitely that that was formative in in our investing. And and led to some kind of key, I don’t know, aspects or non-negotiables about how we invest based on what we learned from going through the, the great recession of the global financial crisis.

Charles:
Oh, that’s crazy. I remember that area really well. Cause I bought my second multifamily property October 1st, 2008, and that was a couple months after Lehman. And then it was mm-hmm. <Affirmative> December was Bernie Madoff’s month, so it was

Ryan:
Yeah, exactly. <Laugh>,

Charles:
A lot of people were worried, especially on type of assets that we were selling people, you know, it was, yeah, it was what a crazy time. But so give us a little, like, why did you choose real estate, I guess as your investment vehicle, you were in hedge funds before you were you know, in different financial products. Why would you choose real estate as really your investment vehicle for you and your partner?

Ryan:
Really it was just goes back to that. It was it being based in, in Modesto, which is a tertiary market in Cal, in central California. It was kind of the, the logical way to apply our finance skills. And I, you know, coming from a hedge fund background, I liked the tangible nature of real estate. Mm-Hmm. <Affirmative>. I was sitting at a desk, you know, shortly out of college doing a couple clicks of the button on the computer and I was, you know, trading a million dollars. And it just felt very you know, non-tangible. And so I think that’s, that really drew us to investing in real estate. And just as a little more background, we didn’t actually start out as investors in real estate. We started out as a third party property manager, asset manager broker.

Ryan:
And so we had, we built up a firm that helped essentially other people and helped them do the value add on their properties. Mostly shopping centers, office buildings, apartment complexes, that sort of thing, industrial parks. And at some point we had the aha moment of, okay, well we’ve got a, at that point we had a team of probably 15 people and we, I, we probably had 2 million square feet of management. And we said, why are we focusing all our resources on third party management? Why don’t we focus on first party? And so that’s why we started investing and, and initially, you know, smaller deals. And then ultimately growing to today we’ve, we’re on our fourth fund, we just launched it. And we’re targeting a 300 million raise. Our third fund closed out at a hundred million. And we, we focus very much on kind of the institutional capital market for our the work that we do.

Charles:
Oh, that’s fantastic. The that’s great that you have the background of the hands-on property management because I think a lot of people coming into this space, they don’t really have that. And that gives you such a well-rounded kind of experience of the whole process of how it goes from investor to the property the whole way. So that’s awesome. Cause most people don’t have that.

Ryan:
Yeah, no, and we, it, it’s funny because we were a third party manager, so people say, oh, why do you do your own management? Because candidly, property management is not a sexy business. It’s not a highly profitable business. It’s definitely kind of a meat grinder. And people, you know, institutional investors ask us, well, why don’t you just third party that out? And we, we say, because we were that <laugh>, we know what that’s like. We, we know what the being on the other end of that is. And it’s, you’re even though you have dedication and focus, it’s different when you, when you’re paid a fee to manage a property. And what we do is private equity real estate. So it’s maybe a little different than what most people are used to. You know, we’re looking for properties that have, that are capital starved in some way.

Ryan:
They have a problem. We come in, we helicopter in, we fix those problems, cure deferred maintenance at amenitize, bring rents to market, and then ultimately sell the property. So we’re, we’re definitely, you know, in and out three to five years on a given property. And so all the more we need Navy seals that are part of the team that share our core values, that are helicoptering into those assets and working that value add strategy. So we, we just, we literally can’t fathom trusting a third party to our business plan, cuz again, pa I would say passive real estate, totally different. Animal there, it may make sense, but we’re in the private equity real estate business, and so we just need that control.

Charles:
Awesome. So tell us about the asset classes your firm really focuses on in your overall investment strategy. You went into a little bit there of what you’re doing but what asset classes are you guys really focusing on? Yeah, because there’s, there’s a number of different ones when I was doing research. Yeah.

Ryan:
Yeah. And so there’s, you know, four major food groups, retail office, multi-family, industrial, and we, we have worked across all four of those asset classes. Today we focus on multi-family and multi-tenant industrial mm-hmm. <Affirmative>. So this is small bay you know, smaller floor plate industrial. And the reason we like those two so just kind of stepping back, our focus and our strategy is working, I is essentially institutionalizing secondary and tertiary markets. So we’re in Modesto, California, think of you know, Orum, Utah, Corvallis, Oregon, Albuquerque, New Mexico. These really smaller markets that are primarily private capital. They’re very unins institutionalized. And so we bring a, a tool set strategy, expertise skills that really aren’t readily used in those markets. And so w with that, we’re able to achieve more of kind of opportunistic type returns, even though we’re doing just a val very straightforward value add strategy.

Ryan:
And so that’s getting back to the asset type. So what we just found is that multi-family and multi-tenant industrial are very, very scalable. We don’t need lots of art and you know, specific niche knowledge that when you’re dealing with large floor plate office or you’re dealing with retail you have to have deep tenant relationships with these corporate tenants. You also have, I would argue, much greater, you know, tenant concentration risk. We like the, the recession resistant nature of the asset classes that we work with. When you’ve got highly multi-tenant buildings it’s very difficult to have significant vacancy issues. And certainly obviously if you’re buying in, you know, markets that have supply constraint and that sort of thing. So that’s why we like those two. Yeah.

Charles:
The multi-tenant industrial is very interesting. I was talking to a broker a few months back and they were telling me about it, and they were dealing with the leasing for this this, this firm and they said they have like a waiting list of people going in there, and there’s just like a lack of it. And this is in Florida, I imagine it’s very similar for where you are. Yeah, yeah,

Ryan:
Yeah. It’s a, it’s funny, it’s a little secret that not a lot of people know, which is this, it, it, and here I’m, I’m sharing it. I’ll share any secret. So with industrial, as we’ve all seen everywhere in the country, we’ve seen industrial grow rising out of the ground, tons of it, millions and millions of square feet. What many people nodding the industry don’t realize is that what you’re seeing come out of the ground is big box industrial. So it’s the Amazon warehouses, big distribution, the small bay industrial, broadly speaking. And I would say this is probably a nationwide trend, but certainly in the markets where we operate the small bay industrial, the rents never got to a point where new construction could be justified. Mm-Hmm. <affirmative> because you know, inflation was kicking in, construction costs kept going up, and, and even though rents were growing, they weren’t growing fast enough that you actually got to a point where a developer would say, Hey, I want to build new product. And so of course, supply and demand, if no new product is being built if you look certainly in the markets where we operate, the multi-tenant industrial, one, 2% vacancy, maybe 3%, I mean, just a ridiculous kind of an unsustainable vacancy level. And until you know, that’s why we, we believe that rents will continue to grow in that segment because until you get to a point where new supply can come on the market, you, you have that issue.

Charles:
All right. Very interesting. So there was a concept that I haven’t heard much about, and then I kind of dug into a little bit on your website. And it was called the outpost economy approach. And yeah. How do you, can you kind of go into what that is and how you determine what would constitute that for your investment thesis? Yeah,

Ryan:
Yeah. Broad, broadly speaking, outpost economy. The, the idea is just that the world has become more flat, right? People are, are able to work and live farther up abroad than they ever were before. And we see this with the growth, even pre covid, take covid off the table for a moment. The growth in remote work, the growth in independent contractor, gig economy, all of that was a growing trend. And it really is fueled by technology. Obviously insert covid, and that just accelerated. And so these markets, these secondary tertiary markets that have a high quality of life or a reasonable affordability, they’ve just seen a ton of growth. And I, I know you’ve seen it in the Southeast I would say maybe a less known story is the fact that all of the west so we’re in Modesto, California, and of course California gets headlines about people leaving, right?

Ryan:
Since Covid, more people have moved within California than out of California. And what has happened is those people have moved east, they’ve moved inland mm-hmm. <Affirmative> because they’re searching for affordability. So just like we see people move to other parts of the country, we’re also seeing people move to Inland California and to other parts of the west looking for that balance of affordability and quality of life. So that’s, I mean, that, I’d say that’s it in a nutshell. I would also say that there is obviously some rubber band aspect of that, you know, some of, some of those people that moved out now, you know, they’re being called back to the office and, and so that there’s going to be an equilibrium there where, where some of those people move back into primary markets. But our fundamental thesis is really around the idea that these secondary and tertiary markets have been unins institutionalized. So it’s a big segment of the real estate market. Much like 15 years ago, if you called self-storage and institutional asset class, people would’ve laughed you out of the room. Today, every institution has mobile home parks, they have self storage. And so we see that the, you know, the corvalis and the Modesto of the world that those will will get institutionalized over time.

Charles:
Yeah. It’s like car washes too. That’s another thing too. Yeah. You see, yeah. It’s they figure out a way. All mom

Ryan:
And pop

Charles:
<Laugh>. Yep. Not anymore. Not anymore. Nope. <Laugh>. So you talked about the rubber band, which is very interesting. Goes into my next question. I imagine if you’ve already, if that’s already being instituted, people are already going back to the office, you’ve mm-hmm. <Affirmative> kind of already seen that really happen in people that are in your outpost economy, multi-family properties are really there to, let’s just say stay longer term mm-hmm. <Affirmative> cause they’re working remote. Is that what you’re seeing, or are you still seeing it’s still pull back to these metros?

Ryan:
Yeah, I mean, essentially what happened I mean, you look at e-commerce graph is kind of a, a, it’s a exactly analogous when Covid hit e-commerce sales spiked way up mm-hmm. <Affirmative>,

Ryan:
Shortly after that, they tapered back down. And if you look at the long-term trend, it’s still a growing trend. Yeah. And it’s not going away. It’s just that it went right back down to kind of reverted to the mean of that growth. So same thing with hybrid and remote work, you know it spiked up and then it’s returned back down. Well, and I think it will continue to return back down. What has what happened in these markets is already, as you know, across the nation, we were dealing with a housing shortage that is true across the nation, that there is not enough housing supply relative to, to demand, and more inventory needs to be built. Well, in these specific micro economies, they also saw an influx of people. So it, it really got exacerbated. So what we’re, what we’re seeing, for instance, is not that in the markets where we operate, we’re not seeing negative rent growth.

Ryan:
We’re not seeing Mar, you know, rents decline, but what we are seeing is that they sustained, you know, seven, eight, 9% annual rent growth, and now they’re tapering off, you know, now, now they’re reverting kind of back to that meme. So I, from a, the rubber band, you know, analogy, we had so many people disperse out. And a majority of those people are staying because they, they saw their new quality of life. And so, you know, as, as employers are calling people back into the office, you know, some of those are returning and some of those are finding other modes of employment or other places where they can work from the, this new place that they, they moved to.

Charles:
Yeah. It’s very, very interesting. So you have some unique investment strategies. How does a company, I mean, in commercial real estate, like test some of their investing strategies while limiting downside risk for yourself and then also for your investors?

Ryan:
Mm-Hmm. <affirmative>. Mm-Hmm. <Affirmative>. That’s great. It’s a constant iterative process there. There’s no, you know, kind of now we’re testing, now we’re not, you know, it is, it is a con and I, I’ll use the example of office. We we were more heavily invested in office and, you know, headline is not surprising, right? You know, off office has, has struggled more. But what’s interesting is if you look at we had a, we, we still have an office portfolio from, you know, legacy investments. And if you actually look at the occupancy of our portfolio, it, the occupancy has grown since Covid, it hasn’t gone down. And it’s grown since Covid because again, we’re working in markets where there has been more of an influx positive population growth. And so inevitably there’s just more interest in all asset types, including office.

Ryan:
So if you look at kind of for, you know, did, did the lease up on our buildings occur as quickly as we would’ve liked pre covid? No, you know, post covid that, you know, lease up is slower, but it’s was still positive growth in occupancy. What really changed our, kind of our outlook on office is that as we saw inflation kick in construction costs grew, grew, grew, and it shined a bright light on this idea that you know, construction costs are a variable that are out, that is out of our control. And in the office product, you do have to spend a lot of money on tis tenant improvements. Every time a tenant moves out. It’s at least paint and carpet, but it may be move walls, other things. And so we were working in an asset type that required constant capital expenditure, and we’re dealing with a variable that’s growing.

Ryan:
And so we just decided, you know, we, why not work in focus more on asset types that aren’t as capital intensive, multi-family, small bay industrial. So I’d say that was a learning process. But back to your kind of core question, it is a, it’s a constant feedback loop. We, because we’re vertically integrated and we have property management folks on the ground, we would like to think that our feedback loop is faster. But it does allow us to, you know, constantly be tweaking what we’re doing and how we’re doing it. You know, another example, we buy a, an asset in a market, and the knowledge we learn from that asset allows us to decide which asset we buy next in that market. So I, I would just say, you know, that kind of testing is, is just a constant part of good investing.

Charles:
Hmm. Yeah. That’s great. So you and your partner, as you mentioned, have been together professionally working for 15 years now. What goes into creating a successful partnership? I mean, obviously you have a personal relationship before this, but what goes into finding a partner that you can work with for, you know, a decade and a half successfully? Mm-Hmm. <affirmative>

Ryan:
Honestly I often analogize it with marriage. What goes into a successful marriage <laugh>, it’s humility is a key part of it. Recognizing that you don’t always have the right answers. Recognizing the value of the shared experience, the shared wisdom, the shared perspectives. I would definitely say that it, my partnership makes me a better person. Just like my marriage makes me a better person. So I, I’d say that’s a key part of it. You have to have the, the first currency that you exchange on in a partnership is sharing core values, because core values, honestly, they don’t come up as much when things are going well as they do, when things are not going well, that’s when kind of a person’s quote unquote true colors or, you know, true motivations come to the surface. So I would say the, the first thing that you wanna look for is someone that you have core values alignment with, but then going into it, view it much like a marriage in the sense that it takes work and it takes communication and it takes humility along the way to think that you know, I can just be my own per, you know, it’s just like a person getting married and deciding I’m gonna continue to live my life exactly the way that I want and make all my own decisions.

Ryan:
<Laugh>. Well see how long that works. <Laugh> <laugh>. So, but, but at the same time, the interesting thing is, I, I wouldn’t trade it for a moment because the being a a, a business owner and, and an entrepreneur at times can be a very lonely thing. And I can’t fathom being in a, you know, being in this journey and just trying to do it myself. So it’s very powerful.

Charles:
So what kinda mistakes would you say you see real estate investors make over your 15 years of investing?

Ryan:
What is the Warren Buffet quote like be, I’m sure there’s lots of ’em, but be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. Number one is that herd mentality, especially in real estate. For any lister that is unaware, real estate operates in cycles.

Charles:
<Laugh>, <laugh>,

Ryan:
That’s really important. Real estate operates in cycles, and you wanna be aware of where you are in that cycle. We we do operate in value add real estate. So, you know, just briefly, value add means we find existing buildings that have some problems and we fix them, bring the rents to market, and then we sell the buildings. We don’t operate in kind of cash flow core stabilized properties, and we don’t operate in ground up development or opportunistic type. And so with value add investing I believe and we have seen that through, you can do that through the market cycles. But you have to be aware of where you are in the market cycles because how you operates a little bit different. If you’re kind of in a peak pricing environment or you’re in a bargain sale environment you, you operate a little bit differently.

Ryan:
But I, I would just and then if you’re looking to buy something that’s a more stabilized type asset, then market timing really matters because the last thing you want to do is, you know, buy at the peak and then sit and watch while your asset declines in value, and then you have to wait, you know, till the next peak. So in that sense, market timing really matters. The other thing that I would say, when what we learned from the three lessons that we learned from the G ffc, the global financial crisis are buy well. So buy well means we always are looking at replacement cost, because for us, that’s the sleep at night. Cap rates are nice, but replacement cost is really the biggest driver for us because we want to know that whatever we’re buying is at a relative value compared to new product being built.

Ryan:
So buying well is important. Second thing that’s important is conservative debt. We learned, again through the G ffc that folks tried to lever up. And when you’re levering up and you’re at a peak pricing, you’ve kind of got a, a bad cocktail as we’re starting to see a little bit now. Yeah. So we’ve always operated in kind of a lower leverage range, or I think our portfolio wide leverage is about 55%. And, and we generally buy fixed rate debt even if we have to pay a little more. And so now we look like geniuses over the last year, even though it was really just cuz we were too conservative. And then the last thing that I would say is add value quickly. So for us and the type of business that we are in, we always want to buy a property where we can grow N o I net operating income quickly. That’s another reason why we like multi-tenant both apartments and industrial, is because you have the leases rolling over regularly, and so you can bring those rents to market. Because having that margin of safety, it’s a form of effectively de-levering the property.

Charles:
Yeah, that’s great. I love that last point on int you know, integrating that business plan, the value add as soon as possible because you, like you said, the more value that you’re adding the lower your leverage, the safer the investment is mm-hmm. <Affirmative>, and if you have to refinance for whatever reason down the road, and Yep. You know, when we’re going through one of these pullbacks, that’s when loan to values at lenders go, you know, 80%, 70%, 60. You know what I mean? Yeah. So that’s a, that’s a, that’s a great point. I haven’t heard that that much. So as we’re finished up here, Ryan questions I like asking everybody, I mean, you went from property management to now raising 300 million for real estate institutional funds. How has your relationship towards money changed over the years?

Ryan:
Hmm, good question. I’m glad I live in Modesto, California. <Laugh>, it’s kind of hard to get too, you know, quote, too big for your britches. So you know, if I were in Malibu or you know, whatever Marin County, it might be a little easier. So I, I just, I haven’t found that my life has changed a ton in that regard. We do what we’re doing. I, I, I regularly tell people we’re fortunate that the work we do, we get paid by in the form of money. There are other people that have a passion for other things and, and they don’t. They get paid in other ways. And so I’d say like money is more of the byproduct or the outcome, but it’s not what we’re really focused on in this sense. We love doing what we do.

Ryan:
We love pulling up to a property and just knowing, oh, there’s, there’s meat on the bone here, there, there’s opportunity. We love buying from owners who have owned properties for 20, 30, 40 years because it’s not that they’ve mismanaged it necessarily, it’s just that they viewed it as a cash flow stream, which is great, but we view it as an opportunity to create value. So I, I’d say we’re, we’re, we’re fortunate to be in the business that we’re in. And, and I’d also say one of the most rewarding things in this journey has really been the people that we’ve been fortunate to work with as our company grows. We’ve been fortunate to work with some just absolutely exceptional people. And I’d say that’s probably the, the biggest reward we got out of it. And, you know, obviously, again, the, the money comes with it, but it’s, it’s it’s certainly not the, the driver of the motivator. Yeah.

Charles:
What do you think are the main factors that have contributed to your success over the years in all your different professions?

Ryan:
Oh, I don’t know. I, I don’t know. I’ll take, take a pass on that. <Laugh>. Okay. Okay. I I, I, okay. I, I guess I would say this, I’ve been very fortunate. There you go. We, we’ve been very fortunate to surround ourselves with really smart people, not only on our team, but also along mentors along the way. So, I guess one thing I could say is just seek out mentors. Seek out mentors. People love being able to impart the wisdom that they’ve learned over time to help someone else maybe avoid some of their pitfalls and, and have some of the same successes. So I would say that we’ve been fortunate along the way to have some really exceptional mentors.

Charles:
Well, that’s great. So how can our listeners learn more about you and your business? Ryan?

Ryan:
Go on our website, seda partners.com. And that’s G R A C E A D a partners.com. Like I mentioned earlier, we, we are primarily institutional in investor but we do have sidecar vehicles that are you know, designed for a little bit smaller accredited investors as well. So certainly feel free to reach out. We also about once every three weeks we send out an email that is really more information driven about industry trends and that sort of thing. So you can sign up for that on our website and kind of get a, a sense of how we see the world. So.

Charles:
Well, that’s fantastic. Well, thank you so much for coming on today, Ryan, and looking forward to connecting with you here in the near future.

Ryan:
Great. Thank you.

Charles:
Hi guys! It’s Charles from the Global Investors Podcast. I hope you enjoyed the show. If you’re interested in get involved with real estate, but you don’t know where to begin, set up a free 30 minute strategy call with me at schedulecharles.com. That’s schedulecharles.com. Thank you.

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About Ryan Swehla

Mr. Swehla is Co-CEO and Co-Founder and provides strategic direction and oversees capital sourcing for Graceada Partners’ portfolio. He serves on Graceada Partners’ investment committee and focuses on strategic capital relationships, leading Graceada Partners’ sponsorship of three real estate funds and prior syndications.

Mr. Swehla has over 15 years of experience in commercial real estate and capital markets. Prior to co-founding Graceada Partners, Mr. Swehla worked for two capital management firms for a combined four years. In 2009, Mr. Swehla and his partner, Joe Muratore, co-founded Graceada Partners. Today Mr. Swehla continues to focus on building a world-class investment company that achieves exceptional risk-adjusted returns.

Mr. Swehla’s insights on the real estate investing climate have been cited in Institutional Real Estate Americas, The New York Times, Forbes, Barron’s, Commercial Property Executive, REIT Magazine, Epoch Times and other publications.

Mr. Swehla attained his Bachelor of Science in Engineering and Management with minors in Finance and Economics from Columbia University. He holds both the CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Manager) and the Institute of Real Estate Management’s CPM (Certified Property Manager) designation. Mr. Swehla is a member of Columbia Alumni Global Sustainability Network, board vice chair with the Downtown Modesto Partnership and is past board president of Great Valley Academy public charter school, which serves 1,500+ students regionally.

Married with three children, Mr. Swehla is an avid mountaineer, having climbed Mt. Rainier and all 15 California fourteeners (mountains over 14,000 Ft) and has completed the John Muir Trail with his family. He is a Rotary International Paul Harris Fellow and Eagle Scout.

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